[ad_1]
PM Modi in Ukraine: Will it change India’s stand on Russia conflict?
| Video Credit:
The Hindu
Six weeks after his Moscow move, PM Narendra Modi arrived in Kyiv. Was the Prime Minister’s mission in Ukraine just about geopolitical balancing, or does New Delhi now essay a more ambitious role in mediating in the Russia-Ukraine war?
This week, Mr Modi did what many saw as a major U-turn in foreign policy – arriving in Kyiv for a visit Western countries have been pressing him to do since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022. The visit was not just his first – it is the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine since its independence in 1991.
All eyes were on the optics, and the outcomes of the visit, but also on whether Mr Modi’s formulation of the war – India’s position on the war is that here are no victors on the battlefield, solutions come from dialogue and diplomacy – something Mr Modi repeated in Poland the day before the Kyiv visit, where he paid respects at World War 2 memorials, including a square named after an Indian maharajah who had sheltered about 1000 Polish children fleeing the world war.
How big was the shift implied by Modi’s Ukraine Visit? Here is how New Delhi had approached the war so far
– No criticism of Russia at the UN/Abstention on votes
– PM Modi did not accept Ukraine’s request to participate in the G20 last year
– India has not cut its trade or oil imports from Russia, in fact they grew multifold- from about 0.5% of India’s total imports to 44% this month
– India had not so far accepted Ukraine’s request to supply telecom, medical and construction equipment for help in reconstruction
– Finally, India has not been part of peace initiatives- and disassociated from June Swiss Peace summit document
So, the question. Why did PM Modi go to Kyiv now?
– In order to preserve a balanced approach to the conflict in Ukraine, after his visit to Moscow
– The visit will blunt sharp criticism from the US of the Moscow visit, and “disappointment” from Zelenskyy over Modi’s embrace of Putin- although the MEA denied the visit to Kyiv came due to pressure from the US
– With the War progressing for two and half years now- and Russia continuing to occupy Ukrainian territory- Ukraine has opened a new front in the Russian oblast of Kursk- it is clear that the best case scenario is now a frozen conflict, not an outright win for either side
– Next month, Modi will be at the UN for the Summit of the Future- and New Delhi may have felt the Kyiv visit is important if India’s voice is to be heard on global conflict
– While the government has maintained India’s strategic autonomy, the fact is that India’s perceived bias in favour of Russia in the war has been bleeding into other ties with European countries- and it is hoped that the visit to Poland and Ukraine will stem that
What should we watch most closely now?
– Russia’s reaction
– India’s position on War- and whether there is any shift
– Efforts at mediation/ Peace process in November –
Supplies to Ukraine- as per Kyiv’s requests
Modi’s next visit to Russia for BRICS
Worldview take
By travelling to Kyiv at this time, PM Modi has attempted a tricky balance that was perhaps necessitated by his visit to Moscow in July. While personal travel, and face to face summits have some importance, foreign policy is built on a much longer-term pattern of actions, and it remains to be seen whether New Delhi is shifting its position on Ukraine in a broader context as well. Remember- a balanced position on the war does not indicate a balance in ties with Kyiv and Moscow- as India’s ties with Russia are far deeper and broader.
Reading recommendations
The Zelensky Effect By Olga Onuch and Henry E. Hale
War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies
Displaced: Civilians in the Russia-Ukraine War by Valery Panyushkin
Russia- Ukraine War: The Conflict and Its Global Impact by Ajay Singh
Indian Diplomacy: Beyond Strategic Autonomy Kindle Edition by Rajendra Abhyankar
India at the Global High Table The Quest for Regional Primacy and Strategic Autonomy Teresita C. Schaffer and Howard B. Schaffer
The Second Homeland: Polish Refugees in India by Anuradha Bhattacharjee
Presentation: Suhasini Haidar
Production: Shibu Narayan, Kanishkaa Balachandran
[ad_2]
Watch | PM Modi in Ukraine: Will it change India’s stand on Russia conflict?
