The View From India newsletter: The dramatic fall of Damascus Today World News

People walks through the halls of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s presidential palace in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
| Photo Credit: HUSSEIN MALLA

(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)

Syria has just witnessed a dramatic shift, with opposition forces taking control of the country, after more than half a century of the Assad family’s repressive rule. Ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow and received asylum from his longtime ally, Russian media confirmed late on Sunday, hours after a stunning militant advance, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seized control of capital Damascus. Residents in the Syrian capital were seen cheering in the streets of Damascus, as the militant factions heralded the departure of “tyrant” Assad and “declare the city of Damascus free”. Do follow The Hindu’s live updates on this crucial development here.

To fit the unravelling Syrian story into a simple ‘rebels oust authoritarian leader’ narrative is to ignore both its history and geography that have had a huge impact on the people of the West Asian country. A complex web of internal political dynamics and the intervention of powerful external actors has trapped the country in a devastating persisting conflict for over a decade now, where the stakes remain high for many actors.

Our readers might recall the Arab Spring around 2011. A mass uprising emerged in Syria as well, challenging the Assad regime. Amid the heavy government crackdown that followed, several militant groups began mobilising across the country, sparking a full-blown civil war.

At that time, few thought Assad would endure resistance for this long. The United States sought his resignation, while the European Union backed the militants and the political branch of the Syrian opposition. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan got involved in different degrees, directly and indirectly. However, by 2016, Assad regained control, with his forces recapturing most of the government’s lost territory. The war appeared to let up. President Assad effectively survived for 13 years since anti-government protests broke out, with help from Iran, Russia and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, who have been Syria’s strongest allies.

On Sunday, December 8, barely a week after the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with its various factions, launched an intense offensive against the Syrian government, capturing one city after another, Assad fled Syria. Let us not forget that this development comes 14 months since Israel’s unleashed a brutal war on Gaza, and days after Israel signed a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, which we covered in detail in the last edition of The View from India.

It took four years for Assad to recapture Aleppo in 2016. It took just four days for him to lose it to the HTS. Our Foreign Affairs Editor Stanly Johny saw this escalation coming as he broke down the rapid advances of the HTS-led resistance last week. In less than a week, the Idlib militants more than doubled the territories they held. “Syria appears to be getting ready for another prolonged spell of bloodshed,” he wrote in this explainer.

At one level, the pressure on the Syrian state since 2011 never ceased even if it regained considerable territory. But more importantly, its key allies were unable to help anymore. Hezbollah has grown significantly weaker, Russia is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, and Iran, after losing several of its commanders in Syria in Israeli air strikes, indicated its inability. The weakening of the Syrian government and military apparatus coincided with the steady consolidation of its chief opposition

The man behind the movement

In a remarkable show of strength and military tactic, the HTS led the resistance and successfully ousted Assad. How did the outfit grow, how did it make such dramatic territorial advances in the last week alone? Read this excellent profile of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani: Syria’s jihadist-in-chief by Stanly Johny, on how the man picked by Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to establish a branch in Syria went on to lead the country’s most potent militant organisation.

For vast sections within Syria, Assad’s ouster brings much relief. They are hoping for answers to the tens of thousands of disappearances and extrajudicial killings witnessed in the country since the civil war. Media reports said some forcibly missing persons emerged out of the prisons after their families endured painful years with no information of their whereabouts.

While an unpopular, iron-fisted leader maybe out, Syrians must now navigate a volatile political and ideological terrain. Much of this has to do with Jolani’s next steps which remain unclear. Although he has never renounced his jihadist ideology, he is seen as having “refashioned” himself, returning to his old name — Ahmed al-Sharaa —, opting for a more “western” attire and showing what some see as some political “flexibility”. Others remain wary, contending that ideological roots don’t die easily. In a 2015 interview, Jolani noted that Syria’s Alawites would be left alone “as long as they abandon elements of their faith which contradict Islam”. He has called for an Islamic regime in Syria based on Sharia — that is the final goal of the HTS. In recent months, though, he said Syria’s minorities have nothing to fear from the HTS. All the same, he repeatedly emphasises the Salafi-jihadist character of his “revolution”. The secular Syria is no longer alive in HTS territories, as Stanly Johny pointed out in his profile. What Syria witnessed this weekend could alter the country’s future in decisive ways, while also changing the contours of the West Asian crisis today. Do follow our coverage in the coming days and weeks.

Top 5 stories we are reading this week:

1. On December 3, South Korea witnessed high drama as President Yoon Suk Yeol abruptly imposed emergency martial law. Adithya Narayan breaks down what led to the emergency and its subsequent withdrawal within hours.

2. A good beginning but China negotiations must continue by Ashok Kantha

3. Value-based realism: Finland’s foreign policy choice in a new global era by Erik af Hällström

4. Suhasini Haidar probes if Israel’s war in Gaza is putting the global order at peril?

5. Amidst growing India-Bangladesh tensions over a number of issues, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri will meet Bangladesh Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus on Monday (December 9, 2024).