Russia and Assad | Why did Kremlin back the Syrian autocrat and what does his fall mean Today World News

Story so far: Ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was granted asylum by Moscow on Monday (December 9, 2024), mere hours after Syrian rebels overthrew his 24-year regime. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, told NBC News, that Mr. Assad and his family was transported very securely to Russia by its forces and refuted any reason to hand over the Syrian dictator for trial. A lightning rebel offensive which began on November 27 ended the 50-year Assad regime in Damascus, in just twelve days. 

Mr. Assad’s flight to Moscow was necessitated because the Syrian rebel opposition led by militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) successfully recaptured Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus, in the face of minimal resistance from the Syrian military. As per reports, both Iran and Russia, who have military presence in Syria refused to aid Mr. Assad at that time. While Russia is still embroiled in the Ukraine war, Iran is involved in a proxy war with Israel via militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. 

The fall of Mr. Assad has thrown into sharp focus Moscow’s diminished military due to its prolonged war with Kyiv. “Events in Syria demonstrate the weakness of Putin’s regime, which is incapable of fighting on two fronts and abandons its closest allies for the sake of continued aggression against Ukraine,” stated Ukraine’s Foreign ministry. Moreover, Moscow had initially tried to explain Mr. Assad’s departure as an organised one claiming he had left the country after giving orders for a peaceful transfer of power. Within hours, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally cleared the Assad family’s plea for asylum. 

Here’s a look at Russian backing of Assad regime and what his fall means 

Historic ties (1944-2014)

Russia and Syria established diplomatic relations in 1944 and Moscow has backed the country’s independence from French colonial in 1946. During the Cold War era, Russia expanded its presence in West Asia backing Syrian Baath party supporters’ coup in 1970 led by Hafez al-Assad, the ousted president’s father.

During Assad Sr.’s tenure, the Soviet Union opened its naval base in Tartus in 1971, provided aid to Syria during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war (Yom Kippur war), signed a 20-year Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. Russia is also one Syria’s biggest arms supplier. 

After the senior Assad’s death, the Russia-Syria relations were strengthened further under his son Bashar al-Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin. By 2011, pro-democracy protests broke across West Asia stirring anti-government public movement against the Assad regime. Throughout 2011-12, violent protests breakout across Syria as wide-spread defections from the Syrian military to the ‘Free Syrian Army’, a loose rebel coalition, took place, opposing Assad’s rule. Opposition forces and jihadists captured swathes of territories including Raqqa, Der Ezzour and parts of Aleppo. Assad’s forces were accused of using chemical weapons in East Ghouta, a Damascus suburb, during the civil war in 2013.

Russian intervention (2015 onwards)

By 2014, the Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi-led Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) rampaged across Syria capturing most parts of the country. ISIS captured Raqqa, Der Ezzour and Palmyra. Jabhat Al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda arm, took Idlib and parts of Aleppo. When the regime came under serious pressure, Russia sent its forces into Syria in September 2015.In its air strikes, Kremlin claimed targetting ISIS-controlled regions, but as per US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), the strikes hit Western and Turkish-backed groups in northern Syria. As full-scale war broke out, U.S. and Russia negotiated a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to deconflict air operations over Syria between them. 

In 2016, Mr. Assad’s Army backed by Russian airstrikes recaptured Palmyra from ISIS while US-Kurdish coalition dubbed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) liberated north and eastern Syria from ISIS clutches. Syrian forces captured Aleppo by December.

Through 2017, Russian involvement in the Syrian war increased as Mr.Assad’s forces recaptured Homs, Dayr-Az-Zawr, Mayadin. As SDF recaptured Raqqa, US and Russia agreed to a deconflicting channel for both air and ground forces. Ghouta and Der’a fell to Mr. Assad’s forces in 2018. Russia and Turkiye agreed to de-escalation around Idlib. However, all hell broke lose as US President Trump withdrew forces from Northern Syria in 2019, opening up the region to Turkish attacks. Mr.Assad’s forces entered the SDF-controlled area to counter Turkish strikes, bombarding Idlib. Fresh wave of strikes and counter occurred between Turkiye and Russian forces through before Mr. Putin and Turkish President Recep Erdogan agree to another de-escalation deal in Idlib in March 2020. 

Since 2020, Russian airstrikes across provinces held by the rebel groups and jihadists continued, however Mr. Putin’s focus turned towards Ukraine in 2022, where he launched a full-scale invasion.

Why has Russia backed Assad?

The decision to stick with Assad inspite of his growing unpopularity in Syria served three purposes for Russia – pushback against a US attempts to overthrow the regime, establish Russian power in the area and acquire military bases for easy access to Africa, explains Washington institute. By complying with U.S. forces on attacking ISIS strongholds, Russia’s military offensive was limited primarily to airstrikes, naval support and a small number of elite ground troops, leaving the heavy-lifting to Iran and its proxies, apart from the Syrian Army.

By backing Assad, Russia was granted a permanent air base in Khmeimim apart from its naval base in Tartus. These bases are critical for Russia to project force across West Asia. It also assures Russia a strong presence in Black Sea, which has been bolstered since Russia annexed Crimea, which hosted its Black Sea fleet since the late 19th century, in 2014.

Since 2021, conflicts in the area remained ‘frozen’ except Idlib and northeast Syria where isolated attacks between Turkiye and Russian-backed Assad forces. According to the U.S. Institute of Peace, Russia’s ‘endgame’ in Syria largely seemed to establish itself as a platform for engagement across West Asia, erode a U.S.-led international order and clinch a political settlement favourable to Russia and Assad. However, these aims lay in disarray with the fall of Assad.

What does his fall mean?

Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 played a pivotal point in Russia’s foreign policy. Banking on US’ continued support for Israel inspite of its brutal attack on Gaza, Russia gained support in South Asia by backing UN resolutions condemning Israel, advocating for a ceasefire which U.S. voted against. 

“The unfolding conflict in the region underscored how little a role Russia could actually play. No one turned to Moscow for a resolution of the conflict; all eyes turned to Washington,” opined Thomas Graham, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. With the fall of Assad, Russia’s influence in West Asia has further diminished. 

Its immediate concern is to secure its military bases. Russia is holding on to its naval and air bases in Syria, even as it pulls back its forces from smaller outposts, reported Interfax. Keen to keep is bases functional, Russia is direct contact with the HTS’ political committee and the talks were ‘proceeding in constructive fashion’, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov to Interfax. However, as a precaution, Russia has temporarily brought its ships out of its Tartus port with two guided missile frigates moored about 13 km off the Syrian coast, reports BCC. 

Apart from that, Turkiye, which is a major supporter of HTS could persuade the rebel group to let Russian troops stay to counterbalance the Israeli and US presence, opined Mr. Graham. All three nations – Russia, Iran and Turkiye have discussed Syria and the fate of Kremlin’s bases and Mr. Trump’s inclination to pull US troops out of eastern Syria in the recent conference in Doha, Qatar. Inspite of diminished influence, Russia will remain involved in Syria, militarily or politically, to maintain its reputation as a great power.