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Some Iran-related bets were listed as being worth hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in volume
| Photo Credit: Kalshi
Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi that enable users to bet on real life events faced backlash after lucrative bets allowed people to put down money on Iran air strikes, regime changes in the country, and US/Iran ceasefires—even as the death tolls were climbing in West Asia.
One particular Kalshi market that had asked whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out as the Supreme Leader of Iran caused major controversy; experts expressed concerns about betting on a possible death, while Kalshi customers were upset that the platform settled the market to the last traded price before the time of death, instead of the actual killing.
On March 1, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted that Kalshi did not list markets directly tied to death, and that user fees would be adjusted to the last-traded price before the leader’s death, or reimbursed for eligible users.
“We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here,” posted Mr. Mansour, adding that having a market directly settling on someone’s death was not allowed for US regulated entities.
Some users complained about opaque and unclear trading rules
| Photo Credit:
Kalshi on X
However, Mr. Mansour said that a market that bet on Khamenei being ousted as the Supreme Leader was important since this would have geopolitical, economic, and national security implications, apart from affecting oil and commodity prices.
Some users complained about opaque and unclear trading rules, as well as slow action by Kalshi after the killing of Iran’s leader. Mr. Mansour noted: “today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules.”
Polymarket has also addressed similar questions in the past. However, the platform continued to list a number of markets related to both ongoing strikes in Iran as well as possible future military action. Some markets had titles including ‘Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?’ and ‘Will the US officially declare war on Iran by…?’ and even ‘US forces enter Iran by..?’
Kalshi listed similar markets on its own platform as well.
Some bets were listed as being worth hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in volume.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have links to U.S. President Donald Trump’s immediate family
| Photo Credit:
Polymarket
In its ‘Note on Middle East Markets,’ Polymarket stated: “The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.”
However, both Polymarket and Kalshi also have links to U.S. President Donald Trump’s immediate family. This has raised fears about increased risks of insider trading, with users potentially equipped to make huge profits due to classified information leaks.
Published – March 03, 2026 09:06 am IST
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Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket hit with backlash over Iran strike-related bets
