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As Nepal goes to polls on March 5, many wonder whether this vote could become a re-run of 2008.
The difference is that 18 years ago, the Maoists, who had come overground just two years earlier after ending the decade-long insurgency, swept the elections. This time, it could be the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), riding on a strong anti-incumbency sentiment.
Where is Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda contesting from? He has chosen a constituency in Rukum — a Maoist stronghold during the insurgency.
Mr. Dahal, 71, a three-time Prime Minister, is facing a tough contest now. Until July 2024, he had managed to switch sides — between the CPN-UML and the Nepali Congress — to remain Prime Minister, despite his party finishing third in the 2022 elections.
UML’s K.P. Sharma Oli is contesting from Jhapa-5, where he has lost only one of the seven elections since the restoration of democracy in Nepal in 1990. Mr. Oli suffered a defeat in 2008 when the Maoist wave was unprecedented.
Oli faces tough contest
This time, however, Mr. Oli, 74, is likely to face an uphill challenge due to a visible groundswell for the RSP, which has fielded Balendra Shah in Jhapa-5. Mr. Shah, 35, who resigned as Kathmandu’s mayor to make a foray into parliamentary politics, remains a hugely popular figure.
Devendra Bhattarai, a Kathmandu-based journalist who hails from Jhapa, says that this time it is not about the candidate — it is about the wave.
“Mr. Oli’s obduracy, his refusal to admit mistakes, and his inability to convince voters about the development projects he initiated in the region are likely to harm him,” said Mr. Bhattarai from Jhapa, who has visited most districts in the east.
Mr. Oli won the last election with one of the highest margins in the country.
‘Charismatic’ Balendra Shah
“Balendra Shah’s craze this time is akin to that of Prachanda in 2008,” Mr. Bhattarai said. “Prachanda was a mysterious character then, as he had been underground during the war; Mr. Shah evokes a similar charismatic appeal among voters.”
Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress, the third crucial actor in Nepal’s recent revolving-door politics, is out of the race. In an upheaval within the Nepali Congress, also triggered by the Gen Z protests, Mr. Deuba was not only ousted as party president but also denied a ticket.
A five-time Prime Minister, Mr. Deuba, 79, has been one of the defining figures of post-1990 politics. The Congress’ newly elected president, Gagan Thapa, 49, is contesting from Sarlahi-4, where he faces a former Congress leader who is now running on the RSP ticket.
The young hold the key
More than 3,000 candidates from over 60 parties are contesting Nepal’s 275-member House of Representatives. Since the elections were triggered by last year’s Gen Z protests — in which 77 people lost their lives, including 19 killed in police firing on the first day, September 8 — the youth vote is likely to play a decisive role.
Nearly one million new voters, mostly young people, have been added to the rolls, taking the total electorate to about 19 million out of Nepal’s 30 million population.
Securing a majority by a single party appears highly unlikely under Nepal’s mixed electoral system. If the RSP emerges victorious, Mr. Shah could become the next Prime Minister. His victory would automatically push Mr. Oli out of the leadership race.
Alternatively, if coalition arithmetic shifts, Mr. Thapa of the Congress could emerge as the new leader. Whether this would significantly alter Nepal’s governance system — long hamstrung by structural constraints and corruption — remains uncertain. But the rise of either Mr. Shah or Mr. Thapa would undoubtedly mark a generational shift, transferring power from the old guard to a new leadership cohort.
Post-poll foreign policy
Developments in Nepal are closely watched by its two immediate neighbours — India and China — as well as by the United States, Kathmandu’s long-standing development partner.
From a foreign policy perspective, the UML under Mr. Oli has often been perceived as leaning towards Beijing, while the Nepali Congress has traditionally maintained closer political and institutional ties with New Delhi and Washington.
Nepal’s economic dependence on India remains substantial, with more than two-thirds of its trade conducted through the southern neighbour and critical transit routes running across the open border. No government in Kathmandu can afford a prolonged rupture with New Delhi.
China has lately steadily expanded its sphere of influence through infrastructure financing and connectivity projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing’s engagement may offer Kathmandu strategic leverage, but it could also introduce new financial and diplomatic matrices that any incoming leadership will have to handle prudently.
Faces change, realities endure
Washington continues to play a quieter but significant role. The Millennium Challenge Corporation compact — a $500 million grant focused on electricity transmission and road improvement — exposed deep political fault lines within Nepal despite its developmental character.
Personalities have, at times, deepened these external equations. Mr. Oli’s tenure was marked by heightened tensions with New Delhi, particularly after territorial disputes. Mr. Shah’s combative nationalist messaging during his mayoral term — including symbolic gestures such as displaying a “Greater Nepal” map — elicited concern beyond Nepal’s borders. Mr. Thapa, while seen as institutionally aligned with Congress’ traditional partners, has yet to operate at the executive level in foreign affairs.
Regardless of who leads the next government, Nepal’s room for manoeuvre remains narrow — a reminder that while faces may change, geography and economic realities endure.
Published – March 03, 2026 10:03 pm IST
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Nepal’s March 5 vote: Waves, coalitions, and the new guard on the cards
