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When France’s President, Emmanuel Macron, called a snap legislative election in June, he had two political objectives: secure a new mandate for his centrist coalition and arrest the surge of the far-right National Rally, which had just finished first in the European elections. But what he got was a hung parliament with the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) emerging as the largest bloc. And what he did was to pick Michel Barnier, a conservative leader of the Republican Party, which had finished fourth in the elections, to form the government. It was a disaster foretold. The government collapsed within three months, leaving France without a budget for 2025. And now, as if he learnt nothing from his gambles, Mr. Macron has appointed François Bayrou, leader of the Democratic Movement party, which has just 33 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, as the next Prime Minister. Even if Mr. Macron’s coalition, Ensemble, which finished second in the elections, and the Republicans come together, they do not have a majority (289 seats) to pass bills in Parliament. The Socialist Party, which is part of the left-wing alliance, has already said it will not join the new government. This would mean that Mr. Bayrou’s government would be at the mercy of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, as Mr. Barnier’s government was, for survival.
With rising unemployment and falling domestic consumption, France needs urgent policy interventions. It has seen a jump in fiscal deficit, to 6.1% of GDP, worse than Greece, Spain and Italy, the Eurozone countries hit hard by the 2008-09 debt crisis. France’s debt has also ballooned to €3.2 trillion, more than 112% of its GDP. What makes the crisis worse is the absence of a stable government. Mr. Bayrou’s immediate task is to get an emergency budget passed in Parliament so that essential services run. But this will entail painful negotiations with the far-right, which is opposed to any more cuts in social spending. This takes the political and economic situation back to square one. Part of the problem is Mr. Macron’s refusal to accept shifting political dynamics. An anti-establishment constituency is gaining strength from economic agonies. While the far-right and the left are trying to mobilise the working population from different political platforms, Mr. Macron is trying to preserve the status quo (mis)using his presidential powers. By appointing unpopular leaders who lack a clear mandate as Prime Ministers, he is prolonging the crisis. If he was serious about ‘institutional stability’, a favourite Macronist mantra, he should have sought to build a coalition with the largest bloc, the Left, and helped them rule based on a consensus-driven political and economic programme.
Published – December 17, 2024 12:10 am IST
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Costly gambles: On French President Macron and his politics
