Syria war: Fall of Damascus appears to align with long-time goals of neighbour Turkiye Today World News

Syrian refugees across Turkiye jubilantly welcomed the downfall of Bashar Assad’s government Sunday (December 9, 2024), with many embracing the chance to return to their homeland.

Large crowds waving Syrian and Turkish flags gathered in the main square of Kilis, a border city in southern Turkiye.

In Hatay province, which also lies on the Syrian frontier, many said it was time to go home after years of living in Turkiye, which hosts some 3 million Syrians.

“We are free now, everyone should return to their homeland,” Mahmud Esma told the DHA news agency at the Cilvegozu border gate.

Turkiye, which shares a 911-kilometer long frontier with Syria, has been a main backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.

While Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of any involvement, observers believe that the offensive, which appears to be aligned with Turkiye’s long-time goals, could not have gone ahead without Ankara’s consent.

It has allowed Turkiye, through its Syrian proxy the Syrian National Army, to push back against Kurdish forces in Syria allied to its sworn enemy, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.

The jihadi group that spearheaded the 10-day march on Damascus, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is listed as a terrorist organization by Ankara. However, Turkiye has operated alongside it for years in northern Syria and is believed to exert significant influence over the group.

Here’s a look at Turkiye’s position, how Mr. Assad’s removal could serve the country’s objectives and possible risks ahead:

Turkiye has stated its support for Syria’s territorial integrity: the last thing it wants is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous region on its border or a fresh exodus of refugees created by instability.

Ankara has conducted several incursions into Syria since 2016 with the aim of pushing back the Islamic State group or Kurdish militants and creating a buffer zone along its border, and now controls a stretch of territory in northern Syria.

Turkiye was previously involved in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between the regime and insurgents, including holding talks with Assad’s main supporters, Russia and Iran.

Recently Ankara sought a reconciliation with Mr. Assad in order to mitigate the threat to Turkiye from Kurdish militias and ensure the safe return of refugees. Assad rebuffed Turkiye’s overtures.

Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of involvement in the anti-government offensive, stating opposition to developments that increase instability in the region.

“All statements that claim Turkiye provoked or that Turkiye supported this are untrue. They are all lies,” Omer Celik, spokesman for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party, said this week.

Analysts say, however, that the rebel offensive would have been impossible without a green light from Turkiye.

Turkish officials say Ankara stalled the offensive for months. Opposition forces finally went ahead with the assault after the Syrian government attacked opposition-held areas, violating agreements between Russia, Iran and Turkiye to de-escalate the conflict.

The offensive was initially meant to be limited, the officials said, but expanded after Syrian government forces began retreating from their positions.

Speaking in Qatar on Sunday (December 8, 2024), Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkiye “attaches great importance for the national unity, stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria and the well-being of the Syrian people.

“Thereby millions of Syrians who were forced to leave their homes can return to their land.”

The Syrian government’s fall could pose several risks to Turkiye, including sending a new wave of refugees toward the Turkish border if chaos ensues.

Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, said that first and foremost Turkiye wants a stable Syria.

“The first risk that Turkiye would want to avoid that all cost is the territorial disintegration of Syria, with different power structures vying to obtain autonomy on their territory,” he said, highlighting the PKK-linked Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the YPG, in northeast Syria.

A stable period of transition would allow Turkiye to channel economic aid to Syria to create the conditions for the return of refugees, Mr. Ulgen added.

Some analysts have suggested that the rebel offensive could stoke tensions with Syria’s backers, Iran and Russia. Turkiye, a NATO member, has sought to balance close relations with both Ukraine and Russia in the face of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

Mr. Ulgen noted that Russia has not accused Turkiye of stoking the insurgents’ advance. He said this was due in part to not wanting Turkiye to “switch to become more anti-Russia” in its stance on the war in Ukraine.

“I don’t think that this creates a breaking point in Turkiye-Russian relations.”

The developments have raised hopes that Turkiye may achieve its strategic objectives in Syria, including securing its southern borders and facilitating the safe return of Syrian refugees.

Since 2022, Turkiye has sought to normalise relations with Syria. However, Mr. Assad insisted on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, while Turkiye maintains it cannot withdraw as long as threats from Kurdish militias persist.

Whether a change of rule in Syria will allow Turkiye to push the YPG away from its borders remains to be seen. HTS has reportedly developed good ties with the YPG, which heads the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Turkiye views the YPG as a terrorist organization despite its alliance with the U.S. against the Islamic State group.

Calling for the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity, Mr. Fidan said Turkiye was being “watchful” to “make sure that terrorist organizations, especially Daesh and PKK, are not taking advantage of the situation.” He was referring to the Islamic State group and the YPG.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army expelled the YPG from Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo, during the latest advance. On Sunday (December 8, 2024), Turkish security officials said it had seized control of most of the Kurdish-held city of Manbij.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, noted that Turkiye would expect to have a significant say in the new-look Syria.

“There will be negotiations that will decide the future of Syria,” he said. “Turkiye will be influential but so will the United States and so will the Middle Eastern countries that will finance the rebuilding of Syria.”

Gonul Tol, director of the U.S.-based Middle East Institutes’ Turkish Program, noted that Turkiye may not be able to control the HTS as it pursues its own interests. “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkiye really want a jihadist organization to be running a neighbouring country?” she said.