The View From India newsletter: War clouds hovering around Iran despite U.S. talks Today World News

(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)

In early January, after protests broke out in Iran, President Donald Trump said the U.S. was “locked and loaded” to respond if Iran killed protesters. On January 8 and 9, Iran cracked down on the unrest. Iranian authorities say “rioters and domestic terrorists” used force against both peaceful protesters and security personnel and that at least 3,000 people were killed in the ensuing violence. According to Iran-focused organisations in the West, at least 6,000 people were killed, mostly protesters. After the crackdown, Mr. Trump said “help is on the way” and urged the protesters to take over institutions. But as protests died down in Iran, Mr. Trump opened a diplomatic channel with Tehran while bolstering America’s military presence in the region.

For a detailed account of what happened in Iran, see our story, The revolution will not be televised.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s special envoy, in Oman on February 6, resuming nuclear diplomacy. Mr. Araghchi perhaps has one of the most difficult diplomatic jobs in the world today. He has to negotiate with the U.S. while his country, internally tense and economically struggling, is also facing the threat of external aggression. Read this profile of Mr. Araghchi, the diplomat on a tightrope, to get a sense of the challenge he is facing.

While there was no breakthrough in the Muscat talks, the Iranians said both sides would continue discussions. Does that mean that war clouds have lifted from West Asia’s skies? It doesn’t. The situation, in fact, remains very tense. I will explain why:

The dispute around Iran’s nuclear programme is a very complex one. In 2015, Iran, the U.S. and other world powers signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as part of which Tehran promised to scuttle its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of international sanctions. The Israeli government and sections of America’s political class were not happy with the deal which was negotiated and signed by the Obama administration. Mr. Trump, during his first term as President, pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA unilaterally, practically sabotaging the agreement. Iran then started enriching uranium beyond the permissible limits set by the JCPOA.

After Joe Biden assumed Presidency in 2021, there were attempts to revive the JCPOA, but were not fruitful. Mr. Trump, who returned to the White House in January 2025, resumed talks with Iran, which by that time had elected a moderate President—Masoud Pezeshkian. Mr. Araghchi and Mr. Witkoff had five rounds of talks. But on June 13, two days ahead of the scheduled sixth round, Israel started bombing Iran. The U.S. joined the war and attacked Iran’s key nuclear facilities — an attack which Mr. Trump hailed as a great success. He claimed that the U.S. had “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Mr. Trump now demands Iran make a deal over its nuclear programme. Though talks have resumed, old tensions persist. Even before the first round of talks in Muscat, both sides had given differing views about the very format of the discussions. Iran said the talks would focus only on its nuclear programme, while Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, said three more points should be included on the agenda — Iran’s ballistic missile programme, its support for militia groups and its treatment of its people. Iran says, at least publicly, that it would not negotiate topics other than the nuclear programme.

Even if the agenda is limited to Iran’s nuclear programme, there is still no consensus between the two sides. The U.S. wants Iran to stop enriching uranium completely. It also demands Iran ship its stockpile of highly enriched uranium out of the country. But Iran says no to both demands. After the Muscat talks, President Pezeshkian said Iran would retain its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty — signalling that Tehran would not abandon its enrichment capabilities. When Russia proposed that it would help in storing and processing Iran’s highly enriched uranium, Tehran immediately ruled out any deal that requires it to transfer enriched uranium out of the country.

Iran says it doesn’t seek to build a nuclear bomb; it is ready to discuss the nuclear programme; and it is open to reach a deal that doesn’t require it to stop enrichment. This is effectively JCPOA, which Mr. Trump tore apart in 2018. This means, the U.S. and Iran remain far apart despite the resumption of talks in Muscat. This leaves us with one critical question: What will Donald Trump do if talks collapsed this time? He has already deployed dozens of fighter jets, warships, destroyers and an aircraft carrier strike group to West Asia, while the Pentagon is currently bolstering its missile defences in the region, including the deployment of THAAD.

Bangladesh elections

On February 12, Bangladesh will hold its first national election since the fall of Sheikh Hasina. Opinion polls suggest the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, is a frontrunner, while the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is expected to do good. The Awami League, Ms. Hasina’s party, is not contesting the election as its political activities have been banned by the interim government of Muhammad Yunus. The elections are an opportunity for Bangladesh to transition into a legitimate, elected government, with a clear mandate to stabilise the country. But pre-election violence has already marred expectations. The Hindu has been covering the developments in Bangladesh from the ground for years. In the run-up to the polls, Rabiul Alam has sent several dispatches from Dhaka.

Pre-election violence shadows Bangladesh’s polls as 127 million prepare to vote

For minorities, Bangladesh’s election is a litmus test of security

Awami League supporters adrift as Bangladesh heads for polls without ruling party

The election is important for India as well as New Delhi seeks to reboot ties with Dhaka once an elected government is in place. India-Bangladesh relations have hit a low since Ms. Hasina was ousted from power. India is also wary of the rise of Jamaat in the neighbouring country. Stay with The Hindu for more ground reports from Bangladesh. My colleague Kallol Bhattacherjee is covering the elections for you from Dhaka.

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4. Stephen Miller | The anti-immigration czar

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5. End of New START and the beginning of a new era of nuclear rivalry

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Published – February 09, 2026 05:22 pm IST