Tense waters: On China-Japan tensions Politics & News

The recent escalation of tensions between China and Japan has become one of the most serious diplomatic crises between the two Asian giants. The trigger was Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 7 statement that any Chinese military actions against Taiwan could pose a threat to Japan’s survival, implying that Tokyo might intervene militarily. This was the first time a sitting Japanese Prime Minister made an explicit remark about Japan’s stance on a potential Chinese military action in Taiwan, marking a sharp departure from the cautious strategic ambiguity that Tokyo had long maintained. An enraged China has demanded that Ms. Takaichi retract her remarks, and has banned Japanese seafood imports and issued travel advisories to its citizens to avoid Japan. China has also claimed that Japan is planning to deploy missiles on Yonaguni island near Taiwan, calling it “an extremely dangerous move”. Chinese Coast Guard vessels are also patrolling the waters around the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, actions Japan says violate its territorial waters. Beijing has warned that any Japanese military intervention in Taiwan would be treated as an act of aggression.

China’s anger is not entirely unfounded. Japan’s colonial legacy still casts a long shadow over the region. From 1895 to 1945, Taiwan lived under Japanese occupation following the Treaty of Shimonoseki. Japan’s brutal occupation of parts of China left wounds that are still raw in Chinese collective memory. Taiwan was returned to Chinese control after Japan was defeated in the Second World War, but became a separate administrative entity when the Kuomintang retreated there following the communist revolution of 1949. Although Taiwan has been self-ruled ever since, China considers it as a core sovereignty issue, a position acknowledged by most countries, including the U.S., through their adherence to the One-China policy. For decades, the status quo helped preserve the Taiwan Strait. Despite the deep mistrust, China and Japan remain economically intertwined — bilateral trade exceeds $300 billion annually. But the election of Ms. Takaichi, a hardline nationalist, and her provocative rhetoric, coupled with China’s forceful response, now threaten to usher in an era of full-spectrum hostility in East Asia. An immediate solution to the Taiwan issue is unlikely. For peace and stability to endure, especially amid global conflicts, the status quo — shaped by China’s claims, Taiwan’s self-rule, America’s strategic ambiguity and restraint on all sides — must be preserved. China and Japan should de-escalate and refocus on strengthening economic cooperation. The U.S., Japan’s treaty ally, must balance its security commitments with diplomatic efforts that are aimed at preventing miscalculation.