New horizons: on COP30 in Brazil Politics & News

The 30th edition of the Conference of Parties (COP) has begun in Brazil’s Belém. Coming 10 years after the historic Paris Agreement, when all signatory members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) committed to a common goal of keeping temperatures below 2°C and “as far as possible below 1.5C”, this would have been an ideal platform to take stock of the achievements so far and ramp up ambition. Instead, there is a visible sense of disarray. The United States has, yet again, withdrawn from the Paris Agreement (though not the UNFCCC) and from 2017, this break seems decisively more hostile. Wielding threats on tariffs and brinkmanship, the U.S. Administration seems actively committed to derail steps toward emission cuts, newer ways to fund adaptation and adopting clean technology. For instance, it has played a major role in recent months in scuttling a resolution by members of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) into transitioning the shipping industry away from fossil fuel use. Following Bill Gates’s shift from being a vocal advocate of curbing emissions to one who no longer sees climate change as an existential threat, Mr. Trump announced it as a “vindication” of his position. There is a case that the U.S.’s isolationist policy is of diminishing relevance in an era when global investments in clean energy outpace fossil fuel investment and that businesses globally have seen the writing on the wall. But as the IMO example states, the U.S.’s abilities as a destabilising force remain formidable. That must be at the back of negotiators’ minds when they began the 12-day deliberative sprint.

This COP is one of ‘implementation’, as the Brazil Presidency has emphasised. While the world’s collective action is far short of what the Paris goals require, there is palpable optimism that the tenor of discussions from now on will visibly shift toward ironing out financial mechanisms for adaptation, preserving forests and strengthening carbon credit markets. It is likely that there will be a renewed discussion on how to make the United Nations’ multilateral process more effective at delivering decisive outcomes and, perhaps, a debate on the creation of a ‘climate council’, as Brazil proposed earlier this year. All of this promises fresh energy and verve to a process that has come to be seen as ineffective in addressing the climate crisis. However, this is also an opportunity for the large developing economies — India, China, Brazil, and South Africa in particular — to stake claim to leadership. This might require a greater display of ambition and recalibration of past positions, particularly on financial contributions. Sans fireworks, India must begin an internal dialogue to place itself favourably for this nebulous future.