Neighbourhood troubles: On India and instability in the region Politics & News

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Thailand’s youngest Prime Minister, 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was elected by the Parliament on Friday after the constitutional court oustedSrettha Thavisin. Ms. Paetongtarn is the youngest daughter of former Thai Prime Minister and tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, and the fourth member of her family to hold the position. Mr. Thaksin was removed in a coup in 2006, while Ms. Paetongtarn’s uncle Somchai Wongsawat was dismissed by the constitutional court in 2008, and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra was also dismissed, again by the same court, in 2014. The latest change of Prime Minister mirrors several such sudden dismissals of the past that are attributed to Thailand’s conservative establishment. Mr. Srettha was among more than a dozen Prime Ministers appointed since 2001. Significantly, the court held Mr. Srettha guilty of ethical violations for appointing a Cabinet Minister who had been convicted for attempting to bribe a judge overseeing Mr. Thaksin’s corruption cases more than a decade ago. Mr. Srettha was himself only elected in 2023, when the reformist Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in the elections, was disqualified from forming a government and banned for suggesting changes to the strict laws governing criticism of the monarchy. As a result, Ms. Paetongtarn’s chances of a smooth term in office, and making radical changes to the system seem bleak. Her most important task would be to help nudge Thailand’s sluggish economy back into shape while averting the fate of her predecessors. Given her age and lack of experience, she is expected to be guided mainly by her father, who is back after his exile in the UAE over corruption charges, following a compromise with the establishment.

The developments come at a time of instability in India’s Indian Ocean neighbourhood to the east — the ouster of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has sent the country into a period of uncertainty, which the interim government must contend with. The developments follow a spurt in violence between militant groups and Myanmar’s embattled junta that imperil India’s investments as well as peace along the border with India’s north-east. With Sri Lanka also heading for presidential elections in September, Thailand’s crisis has cast another shadow over plans to hold the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok on September 4. Many agreements to be adopted on digital payment mechanisms, connectivity, and maritime cooperation have already been negotiated, and it is to be hoped that the summit will now not need to be put off. While Ms. Paetongtarn’s election may suggest some stability in the short term, New Delhi must keep its shock absorbers on, to deal with other surprise crises and seemingly chronic instability in the neighbourhood.

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Neighbourhood troubles: On India and instability in the region