Three months since the fall of Assad, is Syria headed towards stability or chaos? Explained Today World News

A view shows a damaged site, after Israel carried out an air strike on the Syrian capital Damascus on Thursday (March 13, 2025), as reported by Syria’s state news agency, in Damascus, Syria.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The story so far: Syria has entered a three-month period of political and military uncertainty following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the interim President, has sought international legitimacy while navigating internal instability. His government reached a significant agreement with the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), integrating the group’s military and administrative structures into the Syrian state. Meanwhile, conflict persists in various regions, with Israel expanding its control in the Golan Heights under the pretext of counterterrorism. The country’s economy remains crippled, and Assad-era international sanctions continue to hinder reconstruction efforts.

Who leads the Syrian government?

Since the overthrow of the Mr. Assad’s regime, power has transitioned to an interim government led by Mr. al-Sharaa, formerly known under his now de guerre as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani and the political leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Until late 2024, HTS controlled the Idlib enclave, but a rapid offensive in November saw them and allied opposition groups advance to Damascus, leading to Assad’s flight to Russia. On December 6, 2024, the power in the country was handed over by the Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali to the opposition forces.

Despite its militant origins and jihadist history as the Syrian section of al-Qaeda, HTS has rebranded itself as a governing authority, pledging to respect minority rights. However, the new administration lacks full territorial control. Assad loyalists continue to operate in the coastal region of Latakia, while the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) operates in northeastern semi-independent Rojava region. Reports of clashes between the Syrian security forces and pro-Assad militias have dominated recent headlines.

How much fighting continues?

Although the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) largely disintegrated after Assad’s departure, loyalist cells continue to resist in various pockets, particularly in Latakia, a stronghold of the Alawite minority from which the Assad family hails.

The situation is further complicated by ongoing hostilities in the northeast, where the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continues shelling SDF positions as part of Ankara’s broader strategy to curb Kurdish influence.

Also read: The return of violence in Syria

Additionally, Israel has intensified military operations, launching over 400 airstrikes in December 2024, targeting military facilities, airports, warships and infrastructure. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) subsequently advanced beyond the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) buffer zone in the Golan Heights. The invasion of the UNDOF zone, which was established in 1974 following the end of Yom Kippur War of 1973, has been condemned by the UN as a violation of international law. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the operation as a preventive measure against “terrorist threats” and demanded that the new Syrian government demilitarize the region south of Damascus.

What about reports of Alawite massacres?

Sectarian violence has escalated in Latakia since December, with reports of massacres against the Alawite community. What initially started as a guerilla campaign between Mr. Assad’s loyalist forces and the new SAA, escalated over the months into mass killings of civilians and soldiers hors de combat. The UK-based Syrian Human Rights Observatory reported that 1,383 civilians have been killed by both government-allied groups and Mr. Assad’s loyalists. Allegedly, armed civilians have also joined the two sides in the fighting, turning neighbour against neighbour.

The international community has raised concerns over potential revenge killings, given HTS’s historically Sunni Islamist ideology. Critics argue that many government security officers remain HTS loyalists, fuelling suspicions of targeted reprisals. However, al-Sharaa has denied any state involvement, attributing the start to the unrest to misinformation campaigns allegedly linked to Russia and Iran. He has pledged an independent investigation, stating, “No one will be above the law, and those responsible for civilian deaths will face justice.”

On Wednesday, Mr. al-Sharaa has announced on Syrian presidency Telegram account the formation of National Security Council, a new body tasked with “coordinating and managing security and political policies”.

What has the new government achieved?

Despite ongoing violence and partial territorial control, the interim administration has made some key strides in governance and diplomacy. The most notable achievement is the deal with the SDF, which recognizes the integration of “all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria […] into the administration of the Syrian state”. The agreement promises the Kurds constitutional recognition, full citizenship and brings northeastern Syria’s resources—border crossings, airports, and oil fields—under central authority. Along with previously announced by the Syrian Ministry of Defence disbandment of armed groups and their integration into the new SAA, the U.S.-armed SDF military wing is supposed to join the government forces. It remains to be seen, how the conflict between SDF and SNA (nominally part of government forces) will be resolved.

In an effort to gain international legitimacy, al-Sharaa has distanced his government from HTS’s past associations with al-Qaeda. He has secured meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, and European Council President António Costa. While foreign leaders have urged transparency regarding the violence in Latakia, they have stopped short of blaming al-Sharaa’s government directly.

However, Syria remains one of the poorest states in the world, with over 90% of the population living under the poverty line. Combined with the factor of hundreds of thousands of combatants, who’s previous political-military structures have disintegrated, wandering around the country without employment or security, the region remains ripe for new waves of violence. These issues could be alleviated, if Assad-era international sanctions on Syria’s economy would be lifted, nevertheless they remain in place, as foreign leaders remain cautious of the new government. Mr. al-Sharaa has repeatedly called for the reconsideration of sanction regime, with the first steps being taken by the U.K. and Canada, easing the trade restrictions on key petroleum companies and Syrian Central Bank.

Ultimately, Syria’s future hinges on the drafting and enforcement of a new constitution that guarantees minority rights and national sovereignty. Whether the interim government can consolidate power, gain international recognition, rebuild the economy and prevent further fragmentation remains uncertain, but the coming months will be critical in determining Syria’s path forward.

Franciszek Snarski, a student at the Sciences Po Paris university in France, is currently interning for The Hindu