Majority of Indian-Americans feel U.S.-India relationship would have been stronger under Harris: survey Today World News

A majority (53%) of Indian-Americans feels that U.S.-India ties would have become stronger or much stronger under a Kamala Harris administration in Washington, according to a new study published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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This is in contrast to 40% who feel the same way about the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Indian-Americans rate the erstwhile Biden administration’s record of handling ties with India only slightly better than the record of the first administration of Mr. Trump. Around a third of respondents said that bilateral ties — which have enjoyed strong bipartisan support — would remain the same under Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris. The results are part of a new report based on the Indian-American Attitudes Survey 2024.

The survey examines attitudes around some of the foreign policy issues that appear to have impacted the diaspora in the 2024 election cycle.

For instance, it examines diaspora attitudes towards the U.S. Department of Justice’s indictment in the ‘murder for hire plot’, a conspiracy allegedly masterminded by Indian government agents to kill Khalistan separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York. While his story featured in the news both in India and the U.S just before the elections, only around half the survey respondents were even aware of the story.

Of those who were aware, a slim majority (51%) felt India would not be justified in taking such action and had identical feelings about the U.S. if the roles of the countries had been reversed. Only 26% say India would have been justified in taking such action, while 23% responded, “Don’t know”.

On Israel and Palestine, another important issue around the 2024 U.S. elections, Indian-Americans were divided. Some of the diversity in views could be explained by party-affinity (with Democrats more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause).

No Partisan Divide on Values vs Interests Debate

The survey examined how Indian-Americans felt the Biden administration did in terms of the balance between values and interests in its bilateral relationship with New Delhi.

There was negligible consensus on this question, with 31% of respondents saying that the Biden administration balanced values and strategic interests in its dealings with the government (of India). Another 28% felt strategic interests were prioritised over values, 17% felt the previous administration prioritised values over interests and just under a quarter (24%) of respondents did not have a clear view on the question.

Interestingly, the survey finds there is little partisan variation on this subject. The responses are noteworthy, the authors say, because Indian-Americans are seen broadly as supportive of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, so it follows that many members of the diaspora might recoil at Washington’s criticism of India’s democratic process.

Asked which President did a better job of handling U.S.-India relations, 34% said Mr. Biden did , while 28% said Mr. Trump did (i.e., in his first term). Just over a quarter (26%) of respondents said both presidents did about the same in this respect.

Democrats Better at Handling U.S.-India Relations: survey result

Abstracting from the last four years of the Biden administration, respondents in general felt the Democratic Party (41%) was better than the Republic Party (24%) at handling U.S-India relations. A quarter said there was no difference between the parties.

Diaspora more bullish on India

The number of Indian-Americans who feel India is on the right track has grown between 2020 and 2024 from 36% to 47%, as per the survey. Another 32% feel it is on the wrong track.

Significantly, U.S.-born respondents are more enthusiastic (55% vs 42%) about India’s direction that foreign-born Indian-Americans (i.e., immigrants ).

Forty-six per cent of those survey say they are either strongly or somewhat supportive of the Modi Government’s policies. Thirty-six per cent report are somewhat or strongly critical.

The authors’ posit that the greater bullishness in the assessment of India could be because the 2024 elections resulted in greater power dispersion in Parliament and a more robust opposition.

Forty one per cent of respondents agree with this sentiment, saying the 2024 elections made India “somewhat more” or “much more” democratic, while 14% felt the situation remains unchanged before and after the elections. Twenty eight per cent said India is less democratic in the aftermath of last year’s general election.

To study diaspora views on Hindu majoritarianism, the survey asked respondents to reflect on an April 2024 campaign speech by Prime Minister Narendra Modi where he had warned that  Hindus’ assets and mangalsutras would be redistributed to Muslims if the Congress came to power. Respondents were asked if the speech was an example of growing threats to minorities in India. A significant majority of 70% strongly agreed or somewhat agreed that it did , while under a third (31%) disagreed with this notion.  Responses vary by across religious lines.

In terms of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi among the diaspora, overall approval ratings have not shifted much between 2020 and 2024 among the Indian-American diaspora, as per this survey. In 2020, 50% approved of the job Mr. Modi was doing versus 47% in 2024.

Support for Modi stays the same, but underlying variations across groups

However, there is a story around the underlying patterns of support across gender, age, socioeconomic status and citizenship. There is an increase in support for Mr. Modi among younger Indian-Americans from 35% (2020) to 49% (2024). Support for Mr. Modi dipped among 30-50 year olds (by 5 percentage points) as well as among those over 50 years of age (9 percentage points).

 Support for the Prime Minister declined among those who earn less than $50,000 per year while it increased among those who earn more than $1,00,000 per year. Support for Mr. Modi dipped among Indian-American Hindus ( 69% to 64%) and Christians (33% to 24%) and remained at about the same level among Muslim Indian-American  and those identifying with other religions.

Support for Mr. Modi among Indian-Americans who are U.S. Citizens remained unchanged between 2020 and 2024 as per the survey’s findings. However, support for the Prime Minister drops from 54% (2020) to 40% (2024) among non U.S. citizen Indian-Americans.

The report finds that while Indian-Americans in general do not possess clear partisan identities (in the Indian political party context), to the extent they do, there is a tilt towards the BJP.

Survey details: The report is based on a nationally representative online survey of 1206 Indian American adult residents, part of the Indian American attitude survey, and was conducted by CEIP between September 18 and October 15, 2024, in partnership with YouGov. The margin of error is +/-  3%. The  survey and report are authored by Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, Annabel Richter and Milan Vaishnav.